Abstract
Energy consumption induces climate change but at the same time modifications in climate impact the energy sector both in terms of supply capacity and shift in energy demand. Different regions will be affected in different ways and this paper aims at analysing the issue at the European level. Usually rising sea levels, extremes of weather and an increase in the frequency of droughts and floods are indicated to play havoc with the world's energy systems but they can be hardly estimated and this study will be limited to the effects of the increase in average temperature. Tipping points are also taken out of any quantitative assessment. Structure of the EU energy budget is presented, shifts in energy demand, vulnerabilities of supply and risks for energy infrastructure are discussed in order to eventually provide figures of possible further threats to the continental energy security.
Highlights
The relation between energy and climate change is usually debated in terms of how emissions from energy consumption induces alterations in the planet’s equilibrium
This paper aims at making a more detailed analysis at European level of the consequences on the EU 27 energy budget and at investigating the exact extent of a possible energy security issue
After having analysed the effects of climate change both on energy supply and demand, it is possible to look at the values for each of the elements in the energy balance and find out how rooted is the concern for possible threats to the energy security in Europe
Summary
The relation between energy and climate change is usually debated in terms of how emissions from energy consumption induces alterations in the planet’s equilibrium. There exists the issue of how modification of climate impacts the energy sector both in terms of supply capacity and shift in consumption trends. Assessment of this relation is challenging because reliable forecasts of future climate meet with intrinsic difficulties. Greater uncertainty is on supply and production, affected by extreme weather events, than on energy demand, driven mainly by the increase in mean temperature. Because of this incertitude, most of the literature [6] provides just lists of qualitative trends rather than quantitative evaluations. In this study will be taken into account only direct effects on energy systems from increase of temperature while indirect effects, like those coming from changes in ecosystems, will be taken out
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