Climate change and victimization risk: A disaggregated look at NCVS data

Abstract

The current study uses pooled National Crime Victimization Survey data (1992–2015) to examine if the relationship between climate change and victimization risk is modified by victim and incident characteristics. Panel analysis yields interesting findings. First, results mirror those found in prior studies utilizing Uniform Crime Report data, providing another indication that the link between a warming climate and crime may be quite robust. Second, the results indicate that climatic effects may play out differently in different contexts. For example, outdoor victimizations, especially those near a person’s residence, appear increasingly elastic during anomalously warm temperatures. In addition, subpopulations (males and African Americans) are also at increased risk of victimization. Our results effectively suggest that at-risk populations are more vulnerable to climatic variability.