Climate change and variability impacts on agricultural production and livelihood systems in Western Tanzania

Abstract

This article presents findings from a study conducted in Kasulu District in western Tanzania, to assess the impacts, vulnerability and adaptive capacity to climate change and variability of natural and social systems in various agro-ecological zones of Tanzania. Focus-group discussion, households and key informants interviews were used in data collection, also including physical observations and reviews of literature. Findings indicated that there is high dependence on agricultural production, and hence on natural resources, which makes the livelihoods of these communities potentially vulnerable to negative impacts of climate change associated with decreased agricultural productivity, food insecurity and constrained water availability. Uneven seasonal distribution of rainfall and increased temperature are major concerns for the area. Meteorological records confirm that there has been steady increase in mean maximum temperature, which affects the natural systems, influencing the phenological processes in vegetation and increasing evapo-transpiration rates, and increasing risks of crop pests and disease outbreaks. Among the local adaptation options have been the shift to more drought-tolerant and disease-resistant crop varieties and occasional migration to areas with better agricultural potential. While most societies are fundamentally adaptive and have adapted to similar climatic risks, the existing adaptation mechanisms seem to be inadequate. To facilitate local adaptations, there is a need for more information to quantify the magnitude of climate-change impacts and separate them from non-climatic factors with compounding effects. The latter is particularly important for addressing key livelihood components that seem to be most affected by climate change.