Climate change and tourism – scenario analysis for the Bernese Oberland in 2030

Abstract

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to evaluate possible impacts of climate change on tourism on a regional level and therefore to provide a basis for discussion for tourism destinations.Design/methodology/approachBy means of a statistical analysis of data and a comprehensive desk research, the ecological consequences of climate change on regional level were outlined. In expert workshops, the effects on tourism were discussed and the main challenges for tourism enterprises and destinations were derived.FindingsThe ecological consequences of climate change are shown for the different destinations in the Bernese Oberland. The economic effects on tourism under changed conditions are estimated. The changes in tourism revenue, including adaptation measures, would result in annual losses of approximately 70 million CHF, or about −4 per cent.Research limitations/implicationsThere are many uncertainties regarding climatic development, effects on tourism and adaptability of the industry. In addition, the impacts depend heavily on local conditions and the structure of tourism.Practical implicationsThe paper provides a useful basis for discussion for alpine tourist destinations planning to set climate change and its consequences on the agenda and develop strategies to face these new challenges.Originality/valueThis paper presents an analysis of ecological consequences of climate change and possible implications on tourism on a regional level and points out the challenges as well as possible mitigation and adaptation strategies.