Abstract
Quantitative research on climate change and war hot spots throughout history is lacking. In this study, the spatial distribution and dynamic process of war hot spots under different climatic phases in imperial China (1–1911 CE) are revealed using Emerging Hot Spot Analysis (EHSA), based on the Global Moran’s Index for testing the degree of spatial autocorrelation or dependency. The results show that: (1) Battles were significantly clustered regardless of any climatic mode or war category. (2) Hot spots for all war were generally located in the Loess Plateau and the North China Plain during warm and wet periods, but in the Central Plain, the Jianghuai region, and the lower reaches of the Yangtze River/Yangtze River Delta during cold and dry conditions. (3) Hot spots for agri-nomadic conflict have similar patterns as those for all war, whereas rebellion hot spots expanded outward during warm and wet intervals yet contracted inward during cold and dry stages. These findings, by providing insightful evidence into the spatiotemporal patterns of war under the movements of climatic-ecological zones and geopolitical variations in ancient China, can be a starting point for future exploration of the long-term relationship between climate change and social security.
Highlights
The climate–war nexus in historical China has been widely addressed by academic communities over the past decade [1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19]
We aimed to solve this problem by examining the linkage between climate change and the focus of war in imperial China
Except for agri-nomadic conflict between warm and cold phases, the statistics during all cold and dry intervals were larger than those in warm and wet stages. This illustrates that battles became more concentrated in cold and dry climate, but were slightly scattered in warm and wet conditions
Summary
The climate–war nexus in historical China has been widely addressed by academic communities over the past decade [1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19]. Scientists have mostly focused on this nexus from a temporal or time-series angle, whereas the spatiality of war and its connection with climate change has rarely been investigated. We aimed to solve this problem by examining the linkage between climate change and the focus (or hot spot) of war in imperial China. Using the comprehensive official history and well-preserved local and private records in China since ancient times, a few native scholars have discovered the focus (geographical pivot, or strategic area) of war.
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