Climate change and the long-term viability of the World\u2019s busiest heavy haul ice road

Donal Mullan,Graeme Swindles,Hendrik Falck,Tim Patterson,Michael Pisaric,Jie Chen,Jennifer Galloway,Laura Crossley,Andrew Macumber

doi:10.1007/s00704-016-1830-x

Abstract

Climate models project that the northern high latitudes will warm at a rate in excess of the global mean. This will pose severe problems for Arctic and sub-Arctic infrastructure dependent on maintaining low temperatures for structural integrity. This is the case for the economically important Tibbitt to Contwoyto Winter Road (TCWR)—the world’s busiest heavy haul ice road, spanning 400 km across mostly frozen lakes within the Northwest Territories of Canada. In this study, future climate scenarios are developed for the region using statistical downscaling methods. In addition, changes in lake ice thickness are projected based on historical relationships between measured ice thickness and air temperatures. These projections are used to infer the theoretical operational dates of the TCWR based on weight limits for trucks on the ice. Results across three climate models driven by four RCPs reveal a considerable warming trend over the coming decades. Projected changes in ice thickness reveal a trend towards thinner lake ice and a reduced time window when lake ice is at sufficient thickness to support trucks on the ice road, driven by increasing future temperatures. Given the uncertainties inherent in climate modelling and the resultant projections, caution should be exercised in interpreting the magnitude of these scenarios. More certain is the direction of change, with a clear trend towards winter warming that will reduce the operation time window of the TCWR. This illustrates the need for planners and policymakers to consider future changes in climate when planning annual haulage along the TCWR.

Highlights

Averaged temperatures have increased by 0.65– 1.06 °C between 1880 and 2012 (Hartmann et al 2013), with Arctic regions warming at almost double the global rate since the 1980s (Larsen et al 2014)
These results clearly demonstrate a much closer fit between observed and projected series following the spatial downscaling step, which is ubiquitous throughout all scenarios
Rising temperatures might be insufficient to support winter road formation required for heavy haul traffic. & Temperature scenarios in this study reveal a winter warming bias when compared with projections from a range of 42 CMIP5 models across the wider higherlatitude regions

Summary

Introduction

Averaged temperatures have increased by 0.65– 1.06 °C between 1880 and 2012 (Hartmann et al 2013), with Arctic regions warming at almost double the global rate since the 1980s (Larsen et al 2014) This has resulted in widespread changes to the cryosphere, including a reduction in annual Arctic sea ice extent; a decrease in the average winter sea ice thickness within the Arctic basin; shrinking of almost all glaciers worldwide; accelerated ice loss from the Greenland ice sheet; a decrease in northern hemisphere snow cover extent; a decrease in lake and river ice duration; significant permafrost degradation and a decrease in the depth of seasonally frozen ground (Vaughan et al 2013). Consideration of climate change in the design phase of the natural resource industry, including infrastructure, has become a requirement of the Canadian environmental regulatory process (Lee 2000)

Methods

Results

Discussion

Conclusion