Climate change and the food production system: impacts and adaptation in China

Abstract

China has received a lot of attention from both the scientific and policy community in its ability to maintain selfreliance in food supply (Verburg et al. 2000; Yang and Li 2000; Yu et al. 2012). Advances in technology and changing agronomic practices have been responsible for significant increases in food production in China over past several decades (Xiong et al. 2012). Yet, since the 1980s, the unprecedented growth of both the economy and the population has led to a decrease in the area of cropland (Deng et al. 2006; He et al. 2013). The growing competition for land, water, and energy, and the overexploitation of fisheries, seriously impairs the production of food. Global environmental change, particularly climate change, makes the situation more challenging. Changes in climate may have implications for climate-sensitive systems such as agriculture, forestry, and other natural resources (Wu et al. 2011; Verburg et al. 2013). China is among the most affected countries by climate change (Ye et al. 2012). Continuous measurements from meteorological stations show that there is a strong warming of China over the past five decades and the temperature has increased by 1.2 C since 1960, which is much higher than the overall rate of global surface temperature change (Piao et al. 2010). Although there is no observed significant longterm trend in country-average precipitation since 1960, there are significant regional precipitation trends. The drier regions of northeastern China (including North China and Northeast China) are receiving less and less precipitation in summer and autumn (a 12 % decline since 1960). By contrast, the wetter region of southern China is experiencing more rainfall during both summer and winter. As for future projections, climate models tell us unambiguously that the warming trend will continue, and China’s average temperature is estimated to increase further by 1–5 C by 2100. This acceleration in temperature warming and its associated changes in precipitation have affected agriculture and food production in China. One of the greatest challenges for China in the twenty-first century will be to ensure that the food supply sustainably meets the needs of the population despite the necessary adaptations to climate change. Meeting this task will require technical and institutional innovations that increase food production and facilitate adaptation to changing climatic conditions. Climate change affects agriculture and the food production system in many ways (Godfray et al. 2011). Changes in climatic variables drive changes in overall food production through interacting effects on crop yields and crop areas. Although there has been much research to investigate the impacts of climate change on crop/food production (Barry and Cai 1996; Chen et al. 2013; Li et al. 2011, 2005; Piao et al. 2010; Wang et al. 2009; Zhang and Huang 2012), these studies are generally either focused on a single aspect of the interactions between climate change and food production or are performed in specific small regions. This causes some inconsistency in assessment results of climate change impacts, and well-recognized conclusions are therefore unavailable (Yang et al. 2013). W. Wu H. Tang Key Laboratory of Agri-Informatics, Ministry of Agriculture of China, Beijing 100081, China e-mail: wuwenbin@caas.cn