Climate Change and the Energy Sector in Brazil

Abstract

Among the contributors to the increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHG), the energy sector stands out as an important climate change driving force. On the other hand, the energy sector is vulnerable to changes in climate. This is especially true for renewable energy sources, which show higher vulnerability when compared to non-renewable sources like coal, oil and gas. Paradoxically, thus, the options to reduce GHG emissions from energy combustion are those that are more exposed to the very impacts of those emissions. Therefore, it is important to assess the vulnerability of the energy system, in general and of renewable energy in particular, to climate change. The objective of this chapter is to assess what would be the effects of extreme climate change, in other words, with average temperature increase of over 4 °C, on the Brazilian energy system in different settings. This chapter is based on a review of climate change impact studies that have been conducted for Brazil. Since the Brazilian power sector is highly based on hydropower, most studies have focused on climate change impacts on hydropower. The analysis shows that in extreme climate scenarios a vicious cycle would emerge. An increase in demand for electricity would result from global warming, while energy production would fall short in its supply, as temperature increases would affect renewable sources mostly. These results do not depend on future settings for the Brazilian energy system, as renewable sources should remain predominant in the medium-long term.