Climate change and temperature rise in the Greater Beirut Area: implications on heat-related premature mortality

Abstract

This study attempts to quantify climate change-induced increase in premature mortality associated with temperature rise with corresponding socioeconomic implications in the context of an urban coastal city, taking the Greater Beirut Area as a study area. Future climatic conditions under four different emissions scenarios were considered to cover a broad spectrum of driving forces and potential social, economic and technologic evolutions. During the first half of the twenty-first century, the expected life losses due to high temperatures in hot days are offset by expected life gains due to improved temperatures in cold days, except under the scenario which characterizes fossil fuel intensive development. By the year 2095, the annual average all-cause premature mortality is expected to increase by 3–15 %, depending on the scenario.