Abstract
The present work aims to contribute to a better understanding of the impacts of climate change on the availability of surface water resources in the Mékrou sub-basin at the Yakrigourou outlet in northern Benin. To achieve this objective, descriptive statistical methods were applied to hydro-climatological data. The historical data were taken from the Météo-Bénin database and from the General Directorate of Water in Benin. The simulation data are those of the HadGEM2-ES climate model under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios and then at horizons 50 (2041 to 2060) and 70 (2061 to 2080). The results show that the period from 1965 to 2018 is globally characterised by a strong irregularity of rainfall with a decreasing trend and a multiplication of dry years estimated at 54%. In the same way, the runoff decrease about 5.8 m<sup>3</sup>/s during the decade 2007-2016. Under the most pessimistic scenario (RCP8.5) and compared to the reference period (1971-1990), the HadGEM2-ES model predicts an increase in annual precipitation estimated at 8.29% by 2041-2060 and 13.83% by 2061-2080. As regards temperature, there could be an increase of 2.4°C by 2041-2060 and 3.7°C by 2061-2080. These climatic events affect the availability of surface water resources in the sub-basin.
Highlights
The climatic parameters that play a role in the availability of water resources are mainly precipitation, temperature and evaporative demand [1]
Sub-Watershed at the Yakrigourou Outlet (North Benin / West Africa) to which the Mekrou basin belongs, is affected by the phenomenon of drought, which manifests itself in particular through significant rainfall deficits, late onset and early cessation of rainfall, and the appearance of dry sequences. These results show the complexity of climate change, whose impacts on water resources are obvious and can vary from one hydrological sub-unit to another
The present study revealed that the Mékrou sub-basin at the Yakrigourou outlet, between the period 1965 - 2018 is characterized by a strong irregularity of rainfall with a downward trend estimated at about 14.4% and an increase in dry years estimated at 54%
Summary
The climatic parameters that play a role in the availability of water resources are mainly precipitation, temperature and evaporative demand [1]. The scientific community is unanimous about the impact of variations in these parameters on surface water resources and its corollaries. In Africa, and mainly in West Africa, climate change is manifested, among other things, by increased variability in rainfall, increases in maximum temperatures of 0.5 to 0.9°C and beyond +1°C for minimum temperatures [3]. In Mekrou catchment, Vissin [13] showed that for a rainfall deficit of -12% during the sub-period 1973-1992 compared to 1955-1972, there is a 72% decrease in runoff. Yabi [15] showed that the Sudanian zone of Benin, Alain Ibikunle Ague et al.: Climate Change and Sensitivity of Surface Water Resources in the Mekrou
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