Climate change and sea level rise in Bangladesh, part I: Numerical simulation

Abstract

Numerical hydrodynamic models in one and two dimensions have been developed to simulate the effects of possible global climate and sea level changes on flooding in Bangladesh. The low, medium, and high scenarios of rise in sea level have been selected from the predictions of the general circulation models (GCMS). The models have been applied to test the sensitivity of flooding in Bangladesh to different scenarios of rise in sea level and increase in river discharge. The models have also been applied to simulate the combined effects of rise in sea level and increase in river discharge. Flooding in the coastal region and also in the upstream parts of the rivers has been found to be severely affected as a result of changes in the hydrodynamics of flow. The study is a combination of climate, hydrology, and hydraulics. This study will aid in preventive planning and sustainable development to cope with future scenarios of changes in flooding due to climate and sea level.