Abstract
Simple SummaryThe phenomenon of climate change affects the entire world, especially the most vulnerable areas such as the Mediterranean. Since the olive growing is one of the main economic sources for the Mediterranean countries, investigations on olive pests under global heating are necessary. Nowadays, knowledge on the topic is scarce, and nothing is known about the effects of climate change on olive pest parasitoids and predators. This information could be fundamental to understand the phenomena of pest outbreaks that are spreading in the Mediterranean olive orchards. The use of prevention tools (e.g., monitoring, prediction models) may help in controlling olive pests under a climate change scenario.Evidence of the impact of climate change on natural and agroecosystems is nowadays established worldwide, especially in the Mediterranean Basin, an area known to be very susceptible to heatwaves and drought. Olea europaea is one of the main income sources for the Mediterranean agroeconomy, and it is considered a sensitive indicator of the climate change degree because of the tight relationship between its biology and temperature trend. Despite the economic importance of the olive, few studies are nowadays available concerning the consequences that global heating may have on its major pests. Among the climatic parameters, temperature is the key one influencing the relation between the olive tree and its most threatening parasites, including Bactrocera oleae and Prays oleae. Therefore, several prediction models are based on this climatic parameter (e.g., cumulative degree day models). Even if the use of models could be a promising tool to improve pest control strategies and to safeguard the Mediterranean olive patrimony, they are not currently available for most O. europaea pests, and they have to be used considering their limits. This work stresses the lack of knowledge about the biology and the ethology of olive pests under a climate change scenario, inviting the scientific community to focus on the topic.
Highlights
Introduction published maps and institutional affilClimate emergency is the major environmental global challenge of this century, and anthropogenic activities are the most significant driver of this phenomenon [1,2,3]
The use of predictive models may help in this challenging task, even if the adoption of these tools in the Mediterranean scenario is mostly only related to the key pest B. oleae, while few studies have been conducted on the other major olive pests
According to Damos (2015) [109], the use of these tools implies less chemical adoption and replacement by eco-friendly and safe alternatives, avoiding unwanted consequences of pesticide applications that may have an influence on climate change
Summary
The exclusive key insect pest of the olive tree is the tephritid fly B. oleae [22,34,42,43,44]. The ability of B. oleae to fly for long distances and the poor knowledge on the overwintering generation may influence the monitoring of the pest and the prediction of infestation risk [49]. In this scenario, the use of prediction models is essential to improve pest control strategies, deal with environmental impact and ameliorate product quality [49,54,55]. Even if B. oleae is the major insect pest of the olive tree worldwide, few studies have been currently done about predictive modeling of olive fly population dynamics, in a climate change scenario. Models based on cumulative degree day, B. oleae physiology, endogenous and exogenous factors influencing B. oleae demography and machine learning models are analyzed
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