CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS PROBABLE EFFECTS ON MANGO PRODUCTION AND CULTIVATION

Abstract

Climate change is becoming an observed reality, very likely due to the increase of anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentration. Since a few decades, several research teams around the world carry out a huge work to model the future climatic change during the 21st century, based on several scenarios of greenhouse gas emission. We have to expect rise in average temperatures, in atmospheric CO2 concentration, in soil salinity in some areas, and lower and more irregular rainfall. The climate variability and the frequency of extreme events (scorching heat, heavy rainfall, drought, hurricane) are also expected to rise. Climate change is therefore a great concern for agriculture. Mango is one of the most widely cultivated and popular fruits in these regions for its economic and nutritional values. It is the fifth most cultivated fruit in the world. It is consequently justified to wonder about the impact of climate change on the mango tree and about the consequences on mango production and cultivation. The lack of crop model for mango prevents the prediction of the effects of climate change on mango tree development and production. They are then assessed on the basis of our current knowledge on the influence of climatic variables on mango tree development and production. We describe the influence of climatic variables on processes of agronomical importance for the mango tree: photosynthesis, vegetative and reproductive development, fruit quality. We then review the climate changes predicted for two areas of mango production and draw the possible consequences for mango cultivation. Finally, we propose some research ways to adapt mango cultivation to climate change in the coming decades, such as cultivar and rootstock selection, and improvement of cultural practices. The interest of developing a mango crop model is discussed. (Resume d'auteur)