CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS EFFECTS ON AGRICULTURE IN MEXICO

Abstract

Climate change is a major concern around the world, particularly in developing countries like Mexico, where agriculture is the primary rural activity. As a hypothesis, it was proposed that high concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere increase crop yields in Mexico, while the increase in temperatures and precipitation variations decrease them. The effect of climate change on agriculture in Mexico was examined using CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere, temperature, and precipitation. The climatic factor that has the greatest influence on agricultural productivity at the national level was identified. The ordinary least squares (MCO) method was used to estimate a Cobb-Douglas econometric model with statistical significance (p ≤ 0.05). CO2 concentration in the atmosphere was the climatic factor that had the greatest influence on agricultural production at the national level, with a direct relationship: if CO2 increased by 1 %, agricultural yield increased by 0.46 %. Corn and sugarcane, two of the three most important crops in terms of productive value in Mexico, are plants with a C4 photosynthetic pathway that benefit from the CO2 fertilization effect and mitigate the negative impact of climate change. However, in the last thirty years, global CO2 emissions have increased by an average of 0.5 % per year. If its growth continues to follow the same pattern in the short term, temperatures will rise, rainfall patterns will change, and agricultural production will be negatively affected.