Abstract
The impacts of climate change will have far reaching consequences for transboundary water resources, particularly through the effects of changing frequency and intensity of extreme events, such as floods and their impacts on river channel systems. Watercourses have been used as boundaries throughout history for a variety of reasons, and as both a natural resource and political structure, they present a number of unique challenges. Despite academic studies looking broadly at the effects of changes in runoff on river ecosystems and their resources, less attention has been paid to the socio‐political interactions and consequences for river functionality, in particular, as a boundary. We review the historical and legal role of International River Boundaries highlighting the paradox that exists between the stability needed for a boundary and the dynamism of fluvial landscapes in a changing climate. We draw attention to the fact that geopolitical concerns exist at other unstable border situations, such as ice‐covered boundaries and lakes. We examine the knowledge gaps that exist in relation to understanding the physical impacts of climate change on terrestrial earth systems. We present an exploratory analysis of physical and political risk in Southern Africa that highlights two cases of potential risk. The paper ends with a discussion of actions to address the physical and social dimensions of this strategic issue. WIREs Clim Change 2014, 5:835–848. doi: 10.1002/wcc.306This article is categorized under: Assessing Impacts of Climate Change > Evaluating Future Impacts of Climate Change
Highlights
Climate plays an important role in the evolution of river channel systems within terrestrial earth surface systems.[1]
As a preliminary assessment of this issue, we present an exploratory analysis of physical and political risk in Southern Africa, a region that exemplifies the interaction of climate change, streamflow sensitivity, and complex river boundaries
We present a preliminary approach to assessing the potential challenge climate change represents for physical and socio-political risks associated with International River Boundaries (IRBs)
Summary
Climate plays an important role in the evolution of river channel systems within terrestrial earth surface systems.[1]. Warmer temperatures will allow the atmosphere to hold more moisture, affecting evaporation and humidity, and leading to higher precipitation intensities.[2] Observed global precipitation displays an anthropogenic climate change signal[3] and increasing flood risk during autumn in England and Wales has been associated with greenhouse gas emissions,[4] as has observed intensification of daily and five daily precipitation amounts during the second half of the last century.[5]. By the end of this century, we are likely to see substantial shifts in mean annual streamflow, water availability, and flood risk in some regions, as a result of climate change.[6,7] Floods play a major role as drivers of channel and floodplain structures and associated riparian and in-stream ecosystems.[8] Changes in high intensity precipitation in many regions of the world will alter flow regimes and floods, influencing. IRBs are distributed throughout the region and vary greatly in length and significance (Figure 1)
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