Abstract
Pakistan is a highly vulnerable country in the world to climate change. It is ranked among the five most affected countries in the world. Sindh, among the provinces of Pakistan, is located in the southern part and it stands to suffer not only directly from local climatic and weather changes but also from the weather activities in the upstream Indus River and from the coastal environments. This study aims to examine the past trend and future projections of climate variables, assess the climate change impacts on agriculture sector, and recommend adaptation measures for Sindh. The results show that there is statistically significant trend in the temperature and precipitation in some parts of Sindh. The results from climate change projections show that the average annual temperature in Sindh by the end of 21st century may increase by 2 to 5 0C depending on various emission scenarios. Furthermore, the climate change in Sindh is likely to decrease productivity of agriculture and household income. The study recommends infrastructural development, technological change, institutional reforms, information sharing, and effective regulations to make agriculture sector and other related sectors resilient to climate change.
Highlights
Pakistan is a highly vulnerable country in the world in relation to climate change [1]
The results on past trends and future projections of climate variables, their impacts, and adaptation measures for Sindh are presented
Due to diverse geography of Sindh, climate and weather variability are likely to create a great deal of uncertainty about agriculture sector and other economic sectors that depend on agriculture, which will have impacts on income, livelihood and poverty
Summary
Pakistan is a highly vulnerable country in the world in relation to climate change [1]. Sindh province of Pakistan is located in the intense heat zone, and rise in temperatures due to climate change can further aggravate the conditions. Sindh is located in southern part of the Indus River, and stands to suffer directly from the local climatic and weather changes and from the weather activities in the upstream Indus River and from the coastal environments [3]. Floods in Sindh have mostly been associated with precipitation and excess flow of water from the upper part of Indus River. Effects of shortage of water and droughts in Sindh are aggravated with less precipitation and less flow of water from the upper part of Indus River. Coastal areas of Sindh are affected by sea intrusion and rising sea level in Arabian Sea [3]
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