Abstract
Alpine grouses are particularly vulnerable to climate change due to their adaptation to extreme conditions and to their relict distributions in the Alps where global warming has been particularly marked in the last half century. Grouses are also currently threatened by habitat modification and human disturbance, and an assessment of the impact of multiple stressors is needed to predict the fate of Alpine populations of these birds in the next decades. We estimated the effect of climate change and human disturbance on a rock ptarmigan population living in the western Italian Alps by combining an empirical population modelling approach and stochastic simulations of the population dynamics under the a1B climate scenario and two different disturbance scenarios, represented by the development of a ski resort, through 2050.The early appearance of snow-free ground in the previous spring had a favorable effect on the rock ptarmigan population, probably through a higher reproductive success. On the contrary, delayed snowfall in autumn had a negative effect possibly due to a mismatch in time to molt to white winter plumage which increases predation risk. The regional climate model PROTHEUS does not foresee any significant change in snowmelt date in the study area, while the start date of continuous snow cover is expected to be significantly delayed. The net effect in the stochastic projections is a more or less pronounced (depending on the model used) decline in the studied population. The addition of extra-mortality due to collision with ski-lift wires led the population to fatal consequences in most projections. Should these results be confirmed by larger studies the conservation of Alpine populations would deserve more attention. To counterbalance the effects of climate change, the reduction of all causes of death should be pursued, through a strict preservation of the habitats in the present area of occurrence.
Highlights
Wildlife species living in mountain habitats are vulnerable to environmental and climate change due to their adaptation to extreme and very specific conditions [1]
Similar contractions of suitable habitats due to climate change are expected for other grouse species [7,8] Following a population dynamics approach, Wang et al [9] suggested that future warming will accelerate the decline of white-tailed ptarmigan Lagopus leucurus abundance in the Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, USA
Spring densities Across the 16 years of this study, the density of rock ptarmigan cocks varied from 2.63 calling cocks per km2 in 2012 to 7.52 cocks/km2 in 1997 (Figure 1 and Table S1) with a significant decreasing trend (R2=0.76, p
Summary
Wildlife species living in mountain habitats are vulnerable to environmental and climate change due to their adaptation to extreme and very specific conditions [1]. Global warming has been marked in high-mountain areas in the last half century [2], with changes in snow amounts [3], climate-induced vegetational shifts [4], and subsequent cascade effects on animal species. This process is doomed to worsen if increases in temperature conform to recent climate models. Similar contractions of suitable habitats due to climate change are expected for other grouse species [7,8] Following a population dynamics approach, Wang et al [9] suggested that future warming will accelerate the decline of white-tailed ptarmigan Lagopus leucurus abundance in the Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, USA
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