Climate Change and Health: A Historical Analysis of Vivax Malaria Outbreak in Moscow (Russia) during 1999-2008

Abstract

In the early 1990s vivax malaria resurged in Russia affecting the areas that had been malaria-free since 1960s. In total, at least 525 cases of local transmission were recorded during 1999-2009 in the European part of Russia alone. Moscow region consisting of two member states of Russian Federation, Moscow city and Moscow oblast’, was most seriously affected with 386 autochthonous malaria cases, including 90 within the city of Moscow alone. The sources of infection were mostly labour migrants from Central Asian countries.The aim of this study is to analyze long-term climatic trends in respect to malaria transmission and to identify natural indicators characterizing the risk of vivax malaria reintroduction in a temperate climate using meteorology, remote sensing and geospatial analysis.Using meteorological data from 16 stations located in Moscow region for 1977-2016 we assessed the elements of malaria season by Moshkovsky‘s method. The distribution of malaria cases was analysed using Landsat and Spot 5 satellite imagery. The calculation of different environmental variables (including NDVI, LST, LULC etc.) derived from satellite images was conducted for almost 300 water bodies of Moscow city that had been identified as anopheline breeding places by malaria control programme. As a result, environmental indicators for territory typization in relation to malaria have been selected.An increasing trend of two indicators over the last 40 years has been observed: (1) the sums of effective temperatures (otherwise known as growing degree days, GDDs), and (2) the duration of the season of mosquito’s effective infection. The most pronounced changes relate to the 2000s. Spatial heterogeneity of other indicators and their trends has been observed. An urban heat island of Moscow city affects malaria epidemiological parameters and became more intense during the period under study.