Climate Change and Growth Rate of Food Grain Output in Nigeria (1970-2010)

Abstract

The study examined climate change and growth rate of food grain output in Nigeria from 1970-2010. Time series data of maize, rice, millet, sorghum, wheat, temperature and rainfall were used for the study. Data analysis involved the use of Descriptive Statistics and the annual additive series (Trend) Analysis measured in years by getting the annual average of parameters which depict the factual position of climate change by variations of the weather parameters over time. Findings showed that the preferred weather parameters (rainfall and temperature), and the food grain (maize, rice, millet, sorghum, wheat) exhibited significant changes in trend of growth during the 1970-2010 period. Rainfall grew at the compound growth rate of 5.3 % more than temperature per annum. The compound growth rate of maize, millet, sorghum, and wheat output were less than the compound growth rate of rice by 0.9%, 6.5%, 5.9% and 6.4% respectively, and the compound growth rate of maize, rice, sorghum, and wheat outputs were more than the Original Research Article Igwe et al.; JSRR, Article no. JSRR.2014.001 398 compound growth rate of millet output by 5.6%, 6.5%, 0.6% and 0.1% respectively. Acceleration was witnessed in the growth rate of temperature, rainfall, sorghum, and millet; deceleration for wheat, while stagnation was witnessed in the growth rate of rice and maize over the 1970-2010 periods. There was significant difference in the average growth rate of rainfall and each of maize, millet, sorghum and wheat yield; and no significant difference between rainfall and rice. There was no significant difference also in the average growth rate of temperature and each of maize, millet, sorghum and wheat yield; but there was significant difference between temperature and rice. The conclusion of the study is that food grain yield was influenced by rainfall and temperature. It is therefore recommended that if increase in food grain production is to be sustained, proper irrigation and drainage should be applied.