Abstract
Immigration is in fact the response and decision of an individual or a family to change the situation and is often one of the biggest experiences and decisions in everyone’s life. However, the key point is the reasons for immigration. Although the most extensive immigration flows among urban and rural settlements have so far been economic migrations, climate change has recently become a decisive factor for migration in many parts of the world with ecological migration becoming the dominant model in these demographic movements. Khuzestan province - with a strategic position in southwest of Iran and 30% share of rural population- is one of the provinces that has been affected by widespread climate change over the past two decades, experiencing massive population movements, especially in the rural areas. This massive population flow in the rural parts of the province has become a regional challenge. The purpose of this study is to investigate and analyze the effects of climate change on demographic movements in the rural settlements of Khuzestan province. The study is descriptive-analytic and the information is extracted from the database of the Statistics Center of Iran. Statistical analysis has shown that the decline in the rates of rural population growth from -02 in 1986 to -4.6 in 2017 and the evacuation of more than 2398 villages over 1986-2017 have been directly and indirectly related to the diverse effects of climate change.
Highlights
Studies have shown that the earth will be warmer in the future (Arnell, 2004; Gammans et al, 2016) and the global temperatures will increase by 2.5 to 4.5°C by the end of the 21st century (Rosegrant & Cline, 2003)
By investigating the consequences of climate change in Khuzestan, the current study aims at analyzing the effects of increasing trends of temperature and decreasing of precipitation as the main climate change indicators on rural migration and the evacuation of villages in this province
The temperature regression map shows that the values in all regions of Khuzestan province are positive, varying between .0083 to
Summary
Studies have shown that the earth will be warmer in the future (Arnell, 2004; Gammans et al, 2016) and the global temperatures will increase by 2.5 to 4.5°C by the end of the 21st century (Rosegrant & Cline, 2003). Rising temperatures will cause shifts in crop growing seasons, which affects food security and brings about changes in the distribution of disease vectors, putting more people at risk of diseases such as malaria and dengue fever (UNEP, 2012). The impact of climate change on migration is through increases in the frequency and intensity of weather and climate risks (Rogers, 2017). These climate-oriented risks can be sudden-onset events (e.g., tropical storms, heavy rains, floods, and droughts) or slow-onset ones (e.g., sea-level rise, salinization, and desertification) (Arcanjo, 2018)
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