Climate change and dengue: a critical and systematic review of quantitative modelling approaches

Suchithra Naish,Kerrie Mengersen,Pat Dale,Shilu Tong,John Mcbride,John S Mackenzie

doi:10.1186/1471-2334-14-167

Abstract

BackgroundMany studies have found associations between climatic conditions and dengue transmission. However, there is a debate about the future impacts of climate change on dengue transmission. This paper reviewed epidemiological evidence on the relationship between climate and dengue with a focus on quantitative methods for assessing the potential impacts of climate change on global dengue transmission.MethodsA literature search was conducted in October 2012, using the electronic databases PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, ProQuest, and Web of Science. The search focused on peer-reviewed journal articles published in English from January 1991 through October 2012.ResultsSixteen studies met the inclusion criteria and most studies showed that the transmission of dengue is highly sensitive to climatic conditions, especially temperature, rainfall and relative humidity. Studies on the potential impacts of climate change on dengue indicate increased climatic suitability for transmission and an expansion of the geographic regions at risk during this century. A variety of quantitative modelling approaches were used in the studies. Several key methodological issues and current knowledge gaps were identified through this review.ConclusionsIt is important to assemble spatio-temporal patterns of dengue transmission compatible with long-term data on climate and other socio-ecological changes and this would advance projections of dengue risks associated with climate change.

Highlights

Many studies have found associations between climatic conditions and dengue transmission
As part of global climate changes, temperature has increased by a global average of 0.75°C over the past 100 years
The aim of this paper is to review the relevant literature on dengue disease and climate with a focus on quantitative models of the impact of climate change; to address methodological issues in this challenging field and to indicate future opportunities and research directions

Summary

Introduction

Many studies have found associations between climatic conditions and dengue transmission. Temperature increases such as Dengue is primarily transmitted by Aedes aegypti and secondarily by Aedes albopictus Both mosquitoes have adapted to local human habitation with oviposition and larval habitats in natural (e.g., rock pools, tree holes and leaf axis) and artificial (e.g., water tanks, blocked drains, pot plants and food and beverage containers) collections in the urban and peri-urban environment. These mosquitoes may be infected with any of the four dengue viruses with an incubation period of 3–14 days [10]. Dengue viruses cause a spectrum of disease, with symptoms from mild influenza-like symptoms to severe or fatal haemorrhage fever [11]

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