Abstract
Purpose Changes in climate may have both beneficial and harmful effects on crop yields. However, the effects will be more in countries whose economy depends on agriculture. This study aims to measure the economic impacts of climate change on crop farming in Bangladesh. Design/methodology/approach A Ricardian model was used to estimate the relationship between net crop income and climate variables. Historical climate data and farm household level data from all climatic zones of Bangladesh were collected for this purpose. A regression model was then developed of net crop income per hectare against long-term climate, household and farm variables. Marginal impacts of climate change and potential future impacts of projected climate scenarios on net crop incomes were also estimated. Findings The results revealed that net crop income in Bangladesh is sensitive to climate, particularly to seasonal temperature. A positive effect of temperature rise on net crop income was observed for the farms located in the areas having sufficient irrigation facilities. Estimated marginal impact suggests that 1 mm/month increase in rainfall and 10°C increase in temperature will lead to about US$4-15 increase in net crop income per hectare in Bangladesh. However, there will be significant seasonal and spatial variations in the impacts. The assessment of future impacts under climate change scenarios projected by Global Circulation Models indicated an increase in net crop income from US$25-84 per hectare in the country. Research limitations/implications The findings of this study indicate the need for development practitioners and policy planners to consider both the beneficial and harmful effects of climate change across different climatic zones while designing and implementing the adaptation policies in the country. Originality/value Literature survey of the Web of Science, Science Direct and Google Scholar indicates that this study is the first attempt to measure the economic impacts of climate change on overall crop farming sector in Bangladesh using an econometric model.
Highlights
Climate change and variability have human and non-human effects across the globe
The results revealed that net crop income in Bangladesh is sensitive to climate, to seasonal temperature
3.4 Climate projections and its impacts on net crop incomes We examined the impacts of future climate change on crop farming in Bangladesh
Summary
Climate change and variability have human and non-human effects across the globe. Increasing temperatures, changing rainfall patterns, rising sea levels, and increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events are adversely affecting ecosystem functioning, agriculture and food security, infrastructure, water resources, and human health (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2014). Without accounting for CO2 fertilization, it has been projected that climate change would cause a decrease in yield by 17 per cent for a number of crops in different regions across the world (Nelson et al, 2014). Building on these issues, a number of studies have analyzed the farm household level present and potential future impacts of climate change on agricultural productivity, net farm incomes and farmland values (Mishra et al, 2015; Arshad et al, 2016; Van Passel et al, 2016; Huong et al, 2018)
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