Abstract
The cultivation of grapevines in the UK and many other cool climate regions is expected to benefit from the higher growing season temperatures predicted under future climate scenarios. Yet the effects of climate change on the risk of adverse weather conditions or events at key stages of crop development are not always captured by aggregated measures of seasonal or yearly climates, or by downscaling techniques that assume climate variability will remain unchanged under future scenarios. Using fine resolution projections of future climate scenarios for south-west England and grapevine phenology models we explore how risks to cool-climate vineyard harvests vary under future climate conditions. Results indicate that the risk of adverse conditions during flowering declines under all future climate scenarios. In contrast, the risk of late spring frosts increases under many future climate projections due to advancement in the timing of budbreak. Estimates of frost risk, however, were highly sensitive to the choice of phenology model, and future frost exposure declined when budbreak was calculated using models that included a winter chill requirement for dormancy break. The lack of robust phenological models is a major source of uncertainty concerning the impacts of future climate change on the development of cool-climate viticulture in historically marginal climatic regions.
Highlights
To ensure future global and regional food security there is an urgent need to explore the implications of climate change on existing crop yields and on the suitability for novel crop species [1, 2]
The higher temperatures predicted under future climate scenarios and time periods are reflected in projected increases in the seasonal growing degree days measured from 1st April to 31st October, with the historic weather record showing an increasing trend in seasonal GDD since 1961, despite year-on-year variation (Fig 2)
This study demonstrates the application of a simple ‘agro-climate ensemble model’ [66] to capture the effects of climate change on agricultural risks associated with key phenological events that are affected by seasonal conditions in terms of their timing
Summary
To ensure future global and regional food security there is an urgent need to explore the implications of climate change on existing crop yields and on the suitability for novel crop species [1, 2]. Climate Change and Grapevine Exposure to Adverse Weather Conditions mean climate parameters and metrics, such as yearly or seasonal mean temperatures and precipitation, affect yields. The yields of many agricultural crops are affected by mean seasonal conditions, but are vulnerable to the risk of damaging or unsuitable weather at key stages of crop development, which are not readily captured by metrics of yearly, seasonal or even monthly climate parameters, or by downscaling methods that assume historical measures of climate variability will prevail under future conditions [5]. We possess limited knowledge of how certain key agricultural risks will vary under future climate projections
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
