Climate change and conservation in a warm North American desert: effect in shrubby plants.

Victoria Sosa,Israel Loera,Diego F Angulo,Etelvina Gándara,Marilyn Vásquez-Cruz

doi:10.7717/peerj.6572

Victoria Sosa, Israel Loera + Show 3 more

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https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.6572

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Abstract

BackgroundDeserts are biologically rich habitats with a vast array of animals and plants adapted to xeric conditions, and most deserts are among the planet’s last remaining areas of total wilderness. Among North American deserts, the Chihuahuan Desert has the highest levels of diversity and endemism. To understand the effect of future climate change on plants distributed in this arid land and propose effective conservation planning, we focused on five endemic shrubby species that characterize the Chihuahuan Desert and used an integrative approach.MethodsEcological niche-based modeling, spatial genetics and ecological resistance analyses were carried out to identify the effect of global warming on the studied five shrubby species. Key areas that need to be preserved were identified taking into account the existing protected areas within the Chihuahuan Desert.ResultsThe extent of future distribution will vary among these species, and on average expansion will occur in the western part of the Chihuahuan Desert. For most species low environmental resistance to gene flow was predicted, while higher future resistance was predicted for one species that would lead to increased population isolation. The highest haplotype diversity was identified in three hotspots. Based on future suitability of habitat and in the haplotype diversity we suggest preserving two hotspots of genetic diversity in the Sierra Madre Oriental, located in areas without protection. The third hotspot was detected in the well preserved Tehuacán-Cuicatlán Man and Biosphere Reserve.ConclusionGlobal climate change will have an effect in arid adapted plants, favoring expansion in the western of the Chihuahuan Desert however negatively affecting others with high ecological resistance disrupting gene flow. Two hotspots of genetic diversity in the Sierra Madre Oriental should be protected.

Highlights

The effect of future climate change on organisms has been studied from multiple perspectives, in diverse biomes, ecosystems, farming landscapes and for many taxa and functional groups of organisms
The B. trifoliolata population with the highest haplotype diversity (h) was located in the Mapimiam subprovince in La Gavia and Parras (Fig. 2A); in Leucophyllum laevigatum it was in the Saladan and Mapimiam subprovinces (Fig. 2C); S. caeruleus in the Tehuacán Valley (Fig. 2E); E. aspera in the Mapimian subprovince; and Lindleya mespiloides in the Saladan subprovince (Figs. 2B and 2D)
The nucleotide diversity π of B. trifoliolata coincides with the same localities mentioned above and in the Texas population; for Leucophyllum laevigatum nucleotide diversity was highest in Parral and Rocamontes Durango; S. caeruleus in Tehuacán, E. aspera in Galeana; and Lindleya mespiloides in Hojuelas, Durango (Fig. 2D)

Summary

Introduction

The effect of future climate change on organisms has been studied from multiple perspectives, in diverse biomes, ecosystems, farming landscapes and for many taxa and functional groups of organisms. Climate change and conservation in a warm North American desert: effect in shrubby plants. To understand the effect of future climate change on plants distributed in this arid land and propose effective conservation planning, we focused on five endemic shrubby species that characterize the Chihuahuan Desert and used an integrative approach. Methods: Ecological niche-based modeling, spatial genetics and ecological resistance analyses were carried out to identify the effect of global warming on the studied five shrubby species. Based on future suitability of habitat and in the haplotype diversity we suggest preserving two hotspots of genetic diversity in the Sierra Madre Oriental, located in areas without protection. Conclusion: Global climate change will have an effect in arid adapted plants, favoring expansion in the western of the Chihuahuan Desert negatively affecting others with high ecological resistance disrupting gene flow. Two hotspots of genetic diversity in the Sierra Madre Oriental should be protected

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