Climate change and beef supply chain in Southern Brazil

Abstract

AbstractThe current study evaluated the uncertainty of beef cattle supply for slaughter due to the variable climate of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. The data included the numbers of cattle slaughtered, local live cattle prices, price and amount of exported beef, and the prices of the Brazilian beef futures market. Data were collected on the beef supply from January 1997 to March 2014. Climate data included El Niño (EN), La Niña (LN), South Atlantic Sub-tropical Dipole (SASD), Negative and Positive Atlantic Dipole (−AD and +AD), Tropical South and North Atlantic indices. Statistical analysis was performed by a multivariate regression of time series. It was observed that EN and SASD climatic variables increased the numbers of beef cattle slaughtered, with a 1 and 4-month lag, respectively. On the other hand, LN and -AD decreased the number of animals slaughtered, with 4 and 0 months’ lag, respectively, meaning that there was an immediate response to −AD, while there was a 4-month delay for LN. The amount of exported beef and live beef cattle prices were explained by the number of animals slaughtered in the state. Data suggested that the beef cattle market in RS was more strongly influenced by the occurrence of climate phenomena with LN and −AD than by economic variables such as the price paid to the producer for beef and the amount exported. The climate changes evaluated in the current study affect the livestock production system and consequently the beef market industry in Southern Brazil.