Climate change and Arenicola marina: Heat waves and the southern limit of an ecosystem engineer

Abstract

In asking how ecosystems will change with the forces of climate change, one approach is to identify the biotic forcing functions and focus on the ecologically dominant species, because as those species are affected, results will cascade through the system altering components such as biological diversity. Given the status of A. marina as an important ecosystem driver, it is of interest to ask how increasing temperatures will impact its distribution. The literature strongly suggests that the period during which it is most susceptible is late summer when the metabolic load of gametes is maximal and sediment temperatures at burrow depth during low tide are likely to exceed 25 °C. We used the probability of occurrence of fatal heat waves that penetrate to animal burrow depth as a primary factor in our modeling of past, present and future climates and the distribution of A. marina. Modeled sediment temperatures were validated against in situ temperature logger data and then used to develop the relationship between August SST and the occurrence of fatal heat waves to enable use of SST data directly. Modeled thermal gradients corresponded well to high resolution remotely sensed temperatures along the French and Iberian coasts and to distribution shifts in A. marina, known both from the literature and field surveys done by the authors in 2005–2014. Model hindcasts suggest that published occurrences of A. marina within the Mediterranean after 1860 except within the Gulf of Lions are unlikely. Given the known sensitivity of A. marina to anaerobiosis during heat waves, particularly when ripe, the forecasts based on CMIP6 25 km scale ocean models all predict the complete disappearance of A. marina from the Mediterranean and restriction to the upwelling zone on the western margin of Iberia and to the Atlantic coast of Europe north of 45°N with the suggestion of more limited populations in the English Channel and perhaps into the Wadden Sea. These biogeographic shifts will likely cause fundamental changes in ecosystem function along the coasts of Iberia, France, UK, and perhaps into Belgium and the Netherlands.