Climate Change and Agricultural Interregional Trade Flows in the People’s Republic of China

Tun Lin,Xian Xin,Zhang Yongsheng,Guanghua Wan,Xiaoyun Liu

doi:10.2139/ssrn.1789478

Abstract

The impacts of climate change on agricultural production in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) are significant, and differ across regions and crops. The substantial regional differences will induce changes in the agricultural interregional trade pattern. In this paper, we investigate the climate change impacts on this trade pattern, using a computable general equilibrium model of multiple regions and multiple sectors. The results indicate that Northwest, South, Central, and Northeast PRC will see increases in the outflows of agricultural products in 2030 and 2050. Conversely, outflows from East, North, and Southwest PRC will decrease. Grain handling and transportation facilities need to be repositioned to address the changes in agricultural trade flows.

Highlights

The People’s Republic of China (PRC) is one of the countries that are most vulnerable to climate change (Germanwatch 2010)
We use the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model developed by Liu et al (2010) to assess the impacts of climate change on the PRC’s agricultural interregional trade flows
The seven regions of the PRC are exactly the same as those in the CGE model used in this paper

Summary

Introduction

The People’s Republic of China (PRC) is one of the countries that are most vulnerable to climate change (Germanwatch 2010). Studies indicate that the impacts of climate change on the PRC’s livestock and vegetable sectors differ across regions (Liu and Xin 2010). If transportation facilities could not be adjusted to meet these changes, agricultural prices may rise sharply in those regions with significant decline in agricultural output, and fall steeply in those regions with significant increases in agricultural output. These will have negative impacts on poverty and other aspects of social welfare, and may very likely affect millions of farmers and consumers’ livelihoods. Nonagricultural sectors will be adversely afftected since the linkages between agricultural and nonagricultural sectors are becoming much closer

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