CLIMATE CHANGE, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION AND FOOD SECURITY IN SUDAN

Abstract

This study investigates the nexus between climate change, agricultural production and food security and food security in Sudan, utilizing time series data over the period 1970 to 2020. The study applies unit root tests with structural breaks and the bounds test cointegration approach. The estimated models show that food security is directly negatively affected by climate change in terms of rainfall, although the effect of rainfall is positive on crop and livestock production. Energy use and GDP growth have positive effect on food security while food prices, exchange rate, food imports and foreign aid have negative effects. CO2 emissions affect food security positively through their positive effect on GDP growth. However, the positive effect of energy use on food security is almost offset by a negative effect of energy use on GDP growth. Meanwhile, a positive effect of agricultural production on GDP growth is found to partially mitigate the negative effect of rainfall and CO2 emissions on food security. Structural breaks accounted for by dummy variables have no effects on food security. In the short run, CO2 emissions and foreign aid affect food security negatively, while food prices and exchange rate have positive effects. On the other hand, food insecurity is found to have negative effects on agricultural production and GDP growth. Collectively these findings indicate the complexity of interactions of climate changes and economic factors as determinants of food security in Sudan. The study concludes that food security is affected by climate change as a long term phenomenon rather than by short run weather fluctuations. Long term economic growth is necessary for food security and should be enhanced, together with policies enhancing agricultural production in face of adverse climate effects. The study argues for transforming foreign aid from humanitarian-crisis focused to planned development projects for adaptation to climate changes including water harvest projects, and for income generating activities in Sudan.