Abstract
As global climate change has a large effect on the structure and function of vegetation, it is very important to understand how forests in climate transition regions respond to climate change. The present study investigates the net primary productivity (NPP) of two planted forests (Robinia pseudoacacia and Pinus tabulaeformis) and one natural forest (Quercus wutaishanica) from 1951–2100 using the LPJ-GUESS model in the Shaanxi province of China, which is a typical transition region from humid to dry climates. We found that: (1) Future annual precipitation and mean temperature exhibited nonsignificant and significant increasing trend in the region, respectively, indicating a drier climate in future; (2) although precipitation would increase in the dry area and decrease in the humid area, the NPP of each species in the dry area would be lower than that of the humid area, possibly because increasing temperature and CO2 concentration could restrain forest growth in dry areas and promote forest growth in humid areas; (3) of the three species, P. tabulaeformis forest exhibited the highest average NPP and R. pseudoacacia forest exhibited the highest NPP trend in both dry and humid areas, indicating these planted species may be adaptable to future climate change. Our results provide novel insights into the potential response of forest productivity to a changing climate in the transition region from humid to dry climates.
Highlights
The fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change showed that global carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations and mean surface temperature have increased since the industrial revolution in the 1850s and that these trends may continue in future [1,2]
The future net primary productivity (NPP) of each tree species in the dry area exhibited a significant decreasing trend, while those of the humid areas displayed significant increasing trends. These results indicate that future climate change may exert both negative and positive effects on forest growth in dry and humid areas, respectively, there were no obvious differences in climate change trends between these two areas, with the exception that future precipitation in the dry area exhibited an increase while in the humid area precipitation was predicted to decrease
This study investigated the NPP responses of natural and planted forests to historical and future climate conditions in a typical transition region from humid to dry climates using the LPJ-GUESS model
Summary
The fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change showed that global carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations and mean surface temperature have increased since the industrial revolution in the 1850s (by 120 ppvm and 1–2 ◦C, respectively) and that these trends may continue in future [1,2]. These changes will probably affect the vegetation structure and function in terrestrial ecosystems on a global scale [3,4]. Compared with experience-based models, a process-based model can be used to accurately quantify the potential responses of forest NPP to future climate change [4,13]
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