Climate Change Adaptation and Resilience for Tunisian Farmers in Semi-arid Regions

Abstract

The agricultural sector plays a strategic role in the Tunisian economy, particularly in low-income, rural areas. Resilience and adaptation to climate change are the main challenges for this sector. This paper aims to analyze the climate change resilience of agricultural production systems in Tunisian semi-arid areas. A path Structural Equation Model (SEM) was estimated to predict the resilience of an agricultural production system. The Partial Least Squares method (PLS) was used to estimate the SEM with SmartPLS software. Results show that farming systems in Tunisian semi-arid areas remain threatened by the negative impact of climate change since 80% of farms have resilience levels below 0.7. The most important pillars of agricultural production systems’ resilience are income and food access, adaptive capacity, and access to productive and non-productive assets. Significant correlation of proxy variables with resilience, such as income diversity and cooperation, combined with a negative correlation with the conflict proxy variable, indicate that integrated systems, diversified income, cooperation and collective action can enhance resilience of rural households and farming systems. It is required to increase the awareness of stakeholders and decision-makers about climate change challenges and to improve an integrated approach for engaging local stakeholders and institutions in adaptation programmers and development strategies.