Climate-associated changes in spring plant phenology in China

Abstract

The timing of phenological events is highly responsive to global environmental change, and shifts in a phenological phase can affect terrestrial ecosystems, agriculture and economics. We analyzed changes in phenology for the spring season in China that occurred between the 1960's and the 2000's using four methods: species-level observations, meta-analysis, satellite measurements and phenology modeling. Previous analyses have rarely been reported due to sparse observations. Our results suggest that spring in China has started on average 2.88 days earlier per decade in response to spring warming by -4.93 days per degree Celsius over the last three decades. The shift towards an earlier start of spring was faster in two forest biomes (spring started on average 3.90 days earlier per decade) than in three grassland biomes (spring started on average 0.95 day earlier per decade). This difference was probably due to increased precipitation impacts in the grassland biomes. Interannual variations in the start of spring were most likely attributed to annual fluctuations in spring temperature (∼40%) and in large-scale circulation anomalies (∼20%).