Climate and security risks and their implications for sustainable livelihoods: The case of Maguindanao in conflict-ridden Philippine Bangsamoro

Our study aims to assess the impact of climate change risk on human security of households in selected districts of Punjab, Pakistan namely, Rawalpindi, Lahore, Bahawalpur and Sialkot. We further, aim to ascertain if female labor force participation in the household leads to increase in household’s ability to withstand climate change risk to its human security. By incorporating people’s perception of climate change, the study is based on the data collected from 1000 households of the four districts of Punjab with an equal representation of rural and urban areas. The regression analysis shows climate change as a major security risk and consistently yields deteriorating effect on human security. While incorporating female labor force participation in the model, results shows a positive impact of female labor force participation on human security. Further, the interaction term between climate change risk index and female labor force participation depicts varying but insightful outcomes for human security and its constituents i.e. health, food and economic security. Our data depicts that only 328 out of 1007 households had female earners while the average proportion of female earners was about 16% in the households, which may account for the possibility of a few statistically insignificant coefficient. Though consistently positive sign of the coefficient makes a strong case for female labor force participation in enhancing human security of households via tackling climate change risk effectively. These results highlight the need for removal of barriers to female labor force participation at the household level to enable them to play their profound role in combating climate change risk and its repercussions for human security.

Tunisia’s agricultural system is central to the stability of the country, but it is also extremely prone to climate risks such as droughts and reduced or more variable rainfall. It is predicted that agricultural yields from key crops like wheat and olives will decline. These climate risks on Tunisia’s agricultural and wider food system can lead to socioeconomic instability and potentially cause security risks. Furthermore, these risks can have knock-on effects that cross national borders, sectors and systems. Tunisia’s capacity to adapt to climate change is undermined by three sets of political, governance and socio-economic factors, or so-called ‘climate-related development risks’, namely (1) governance and policy coherence challenges; (2) food import dependency and an export-oriented agri-food system; and (3) territorial inequalities. These factors contribute, directly or indirectly, to the likelihood of cascading climate risks that start with Tunisia’s agri-food system. Due to the country’s reduced adaptive capacity, climate risks in Tunisia’s agri-food system can have an impact on Europe through trade and supply chains, security relations, financial markets, international aid operations as well as migration patterns. It is key that the European Union recognises these risks in its Green Deal and adaptation efforts, as well as in a much wider group of policies, ranging from trade to migration.

PurposeA number of severe weather events have influenced a shift in UK policy concerning how climate-induced hazards are managed. Whist this shift has encouraged improvements in emergency management and preparedness, the risk of climate change is increasingly becoming securitised within policy discourses, and enmeshed with broader agendas traditionally associated with human-induced threats. Climate change is seen as a security risk because it can impede development of a nation. The purpose of this paper is to explore the evolution of the securitisation of climate change, and interrogates how such framings influence a range of conceptual and policy focused approaches towards both security and climate change.Design/methodology/approachDrawing upon the UK context, the paper uses a novel methodological approach combining critical discourse analysis and focus groups with security experts and policymakers.FindingsThe resulting policy landscape appears inexorably skewed towards short-term decision cycles that do little to mitigate longer-term threats to the nation’s assets. Whilst a prominent political action on a global level is required in order to mitigate the root causes (i.e. GHG emissions), national level efforts focus on adaptation (preparedness to the impacts of climate-induced hazards), and are forming part of the security agenda.Originality/valueThese issues are not restricted to the UK: understanding the role of security and its relationship to climate change becomes more pressing and urgent, as it informs the consequences of securitising climate change risks for development-disaster risk system.

This paper seeks to develop climate‐riskification as a new analytical tool that can better address the nuances of climate security and climate risk discourses. The paper complements the riskification framework but moves beyond it in two crucial respects: the new tool substantiates the analytical relevance of this framework; and the paper respond to two common criticisms of the framework. First, climate change may not be articulated based on a security risk perspective at the expense of a security threat given that the logics of risk and threat do intersect. Second, the riskification of climate change may be counterproductive. The paper argues that the climate‐riskification tool can help researchers working on climate security to better understand the topic and the role of interstate institutions in the climate security debate. It briefly examines formal debates on climate and security in the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). The data generated from this context revealed that climate‐riskification has occurred in the UNSC, indicating the reality of climate‐related security risks – a motivation for proponents of climate security to continue riskifying moves whenever this topic is debated again. Future researchers might want to empirically examine the climate‐riskification tool using relevant interstate institutions as case studies.

Why do images and reports of starving and malnourished Africans appear so often in the media? What are the actual dimensions of the problem? What has trade and climate got to do with it? In How Africa Eats: Trade, Food Security and Climate Risks, award-winning author David Luke and a team of researchers seek to answer these questions, to explain why Africa struggles with food security and what can be done about it. The intersection between trade, agriculture policies, and climate risks is fundamental to this enquiry. Using a data-led approach, this book examines in detail what Africa eats and where and how it is produced. It investigates how finance, investment, foreign aid, institutions, actors and capacities interact with policies in holding Africa back from becoming an agricultural powerhouse despite having 60 per cent of the world’s arable land area. The book evaluates how climate change exacerbates the continent’s challenges and scrutinises the sustainability of production systems in the face of environmental volatility. Experts in trade policy, international law and development unpack the barriers that currently limit the growth of intra-African food trade, including the role of the World Trade Organization (WTO), and model the expected impact of the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) on agricultural trade. The extent of food deprivation in Africa is sobering. The United Nations estimates that a fifth of the African population is undernourished, and a quarter live with the day-to-day experience of severe food insecurity. How Africa Eats provides a vital, open access resource for academics, policymakers and trade experts seeking to address the continent’s food insecurity in the face of urgent threats from climate change, trade barriers and complex policy challenges.

Using geospatial techniques to assess climate risks in savannah agroecological systems

The role of migration as one potential adaptation to climate change is increasingly recognized, but little is known about whether migration constitutes successful adaptation, under what conditions, and for whom. Based on a review of emerging migration science, we propose that migration is a successful adaptation to climate change if it increases well-being, reduces inequality, and promotes sustainability. Well-being, equity, and sustainability represent entry points for identifying trade-offs within and across different social and temporal scales that could potentially undermine the success of migration as adaptation. We show that assessment of success at various scales requires the incorporation of consequences such as loss of population in migration source areas, climate risk in migration destination, and material and non-material flows and economic synergies between source and destination. These dynamics and evaluation criteria can help make migration visible and tractable to policy as an effective adaptation option.

“This chapter aims to anchor the book in exactly what we mean when we consider Africa’s agricultural trade – from grains and legumes through to fertilisers and tractors – and to establish a model for thinking about the interaction between trade, food security and climate risks in subsequent chapters. It does this by examining Africa’s agricultural exports in the broader context of its trade history. It then focuses on specific commodities such as maize, rice, wheat and fertilisers, which drive agricultural trade.”

Climate change presents a number of risks to economies and societies. These risks include physical, market, policy, and security risks. Some of these risks are more immediate than others, but all need careful management over time. The insurance sector has a critical role to play in tackling climate risks through the provision of risk management expertise and the provision of risk transfer mechanisms. The insurance sector is also one of the business sectors highly exposed to climate change risks because of the likely increase in frequency and severity of weather events and resultant socioeconomic changes. At the same time, climate change offers opportunities for the insurance industry, but to seize these opportunities, each insurer will need to focus on certain types of risks and products that are within its risk appetite. This chapter addresses three questions: What does climate risk mean for insurers? How can climate risk be removed and/or reduced? And what are the climate opportunities for insurers?

The global emphasis on gender equality has led to an emerging body of work that recognizes that women and men experience climate change and other risks differently as a result of their specific positions and claims within the social relations of production and reproduction; the distribution of resources; and the cultural norms shaping institutions of governance, politics and markets. Yet even this literature tends to homogenise men and women as distinct categories, often oppositional in nature, not giving adequate attention to critical issues of power and meaning, conflict and cooperation, embedded in their social identity and critical relationships. The author draws on her long-standing research in India, especially amongst tribal communities, on gendered changes in land and agrarian relations and its implications for livelihoods, food security and well-being. She presents a few micro-level examples of gender analysis in the context of climate change to illustrate the operationalisation of an intersectional lens in climate change research. She briefly summarises insights from a meta-synthesis of 25 cases across Asia and Africa to highlight emergent themes and areas that need further attention in both research and policy and concludes with a few brief comments on the policy relevance of such research.

Climate change is increasingly recognised as a critical factor in shaping national security dynamics. Africa, despite having the lowest per capita green gas emissions, is highly vulnerable to climate-related risks. Existing studies have primarily focused on the impacts of climate change on food, water, land and human security. This study aimed to provide a nuanced understanding of the implications of climate change on national security and regional cooperation in Africa. Using secondary data, the study employed case studies from the Sahel, Nile Basin and Horn of Africa to explore how climate change exacerbates transboundary security challenges. It also assessed the effectiveness of existing regional mechanisms in addressing these issues. The findings reveal complex, interconnected climate security risks. These include increased inter-communal violence due to resource scarcity, higher migration and displacement rates, and an increase in organised crime and violent extremism. This study contributes to the knowledge on climate change and security risks across borders and the importance of regional collaboration in addressing these issues. It provides policy recommendations to strengthen regional institutions and to develop strategies to improve regional cooperation and security governance in response to climate change.

This article examines how religio-cultural values influence the vulnerability and adaptive capacity of local communities in the face of climate-change-induced security risks through a case study of vulnerable communities in northern Mozambique. These risks encompass various forms of suffering, displacement, and violence related to climatic stressors. While traditional approaches to climate change impacts often prioritize economic and technological solutions, this study argues for the inclusion of religio-cultural values in climate security discourse. Using a values-based analytical framework and ethnographic and participatory research methods, the article investigates how religio-cultural values shape community responses to climate change and related security risks in two communities in Nampula District. The research highlights that techno-scientific interventions, when not aligned with local values, can exacerbate conflicts and undermine the effectiveness of climate adaptation strategies. It further demonstrates the potential for peace and stability that can be achieved by integrating local religio-cultural values into climate policies and practices.

Rural household food insecurity and poverty are closely linked to soil degradation in Sub-Saharan Africa. However, causes, degradation processes, coping strategies and need for interventions may vary from one place to another. This study was conducted in Mbinga District, SW Tanzania, to investigate causes and biophysical processes of soil degradation; effects on livelihoods, coping strategies and entry points for interventions. Implications for sustainable production and rural livelihoods are discussed. Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA), household surveys using a short open-ended questionnaire and biophysical exploration were the research tools used. Soil fertility depletion resulting from continuous cropping and erosion losses is the main form of soil degradation. Maize yield was 57% lower in fertility-depleted farms than in productive farms. Soil pH, Ca2+, Mg2+ and CEC accounted for 79% of variations in maize yield. Organic soil fertility amelioration was a common strategy used by smallholders. Use of beneficial tree and shrub fallows is the most environmentally, economically and socially promising improvement that can be used to build on the existing strengths of farmers' knowledge and strategies. Subsidy for the right type of fertilizers, infrastructure improvement and education of farmers on proper use of fertilizers should significantly contribute to improved and sustainable production and livelihoods.

Feasibility study of a Great Lakes bioenergy system

Chapter 14 - Biomass Gasification Integrated Fischer-Tropsch Synthesis: Perspectives, Opportunities and Challenges