Abstract

The influence of climatic variables and land use on fecal coliform (FC) levels in stormwater collected from outfalls throughout southern Vancouver Island between 1995 and 2011 are examined through statistical analyses, Fourier analysis, Multiple Linear Regression (LR) and Multivariate Logistic Regression (MLR). Kendall’s τ-b demonstrated that FC levels were significantly and positively correlated with the amount of residential area within a drainage catchment generating the runoff, and that FC levels were location dependent. Climatic variables of temperature and antecedent dry period length were significantly and positively correlated with FC levels at both the sampling location level and across the region overall. Precipitation and flowrates were negatively correlated with FC levels. Fourier analysis showed that monthly FC levels shared the same 12 month cycle (peaking in July) as precipitation and temperature. MLR modelling was applied by aggregating the LogFC data by order of magnitude. The MLR model shows that the data are subject to different influences depending on the season and as well, the month of the year. The land use and climate analyses suggest that future climate change impact studies attempted on nearshore bacterial water quality should be conducted at the urban catchment scale.

Highlights

  • Contaminates transported through stormwater runoff to coastal waters can pose a potential risk to public health and the environment [1]

  • Given the extensive monitoring network developed by the Capital Regional District (CRD), the objectives of this work are to determine if the fecal coliform data collected by the CRD during its regular monitoring program are influenced by local weather and land use; what insights arise from the scale of the collection and variable studied, and in particular, whether data-driven methods are able to provide insights into the causal mechanisms behind the observations

  • The results suggest a different seasonal pattern in fecal coliform levels from a regular monsoon climate pattern in which the level of fecal coliforms is high in summer and low in winter

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Summary

Introduction

Contaminates transported through stormwater runoff to coastal waters can pose a potential risk to public health and the environment [1]. Many municipalities will monitor and manage stormwater quality for both health and environmental concerns. Fecal coliforms (FC) have historically been used as a fecal indicator to indicate the presence of microbial contamination in surface and ground waters [5,6]. Since they are considered as an indicator of surface water quality and safety, FC is often selected for monitoring in those water quality monitoring programs concerned with microbial loading

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