Climate and land-use change refugia for Brazilian Cerrado birds

Abstract

As climate and land-use changes threatens biodiversity, the identification of refugia areas for species becomes a crucial strategy in conservation planning. Here, we integrate climate change anomaly with a land-use change model both projected for 2050 to identify refugia areas for 103 bird species that occur in the Brazilian Cerrado. We found that 13% of the Cerrado may serve as refugia for the bird species. In contrast, nearly 35% of the biome might become areas of high risk for those species. Most species (74%) will held from 34% to 85% of their current geographic distribution in areas with less native vegetation, but with low climate anomaly. Apart from the protection of the refugia areas, we suggest restoration of native vegetation in regions that are likely to maintain climate conditions more adequate in the future. These areas should be prioritized to protect places with higher species richness and ease the establishment of corridors that would support climate-induced dispersal from high risk areas to suitable ones. Approaches that allow for the identification and future protection of refugia are fundamental to guarantee the conservation of biodiversity faced with climate change and rapid land-use changes that already taking place.