Climate and Hazardous Convective Weather

Michael K Tippett,John T Allen,Harold E Brooks,Vittorio A Gensini

doi:10.1007/s40641-015-0006-6

Abstract

Substantial progress has been made recently relating the large-scale climate system and hazardous convective weather (HCW; tornadoes, hail, and damaging wind), particularly over the USA where there are large societal impacts and a long observational record. Despite observational data limitations, HCW has shown to be influenced by the climate system and the tropical atmosphere via the Madden-Julian Oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Analysis of the atmospheric environments favorable to HCW (e.g., convective available potential energy and vertical wind shear) avoids observational and model limitations. While few robust trends are seen over recent decades, future climate projections indicate increased frequency of such environments over the USA, Europe, and Australia, suggesting increased future HCW activity. A recent increase in the year-to-year variability of US tornado occurrence is striking, but not yet understood. Dynamical downscaling to convection-permitting resolutions promises improved understanding of the relationships between large-scale climate and HCW occurrence.

Highlights

This paper reviews recent research on connections between large-scale climate signals and severe convective activity over land
We focus on tornadoes, hail, and damaging winds, and we refer to these events collectively as hazardous convective weather (HCW)
Improved understanding of the role that climate signals play in modulating the frequency and intensity of HCW activity may lead to useful long-range outlooks and projections, which in turn may help society to better manage the risks from HCW, including damage to property and loss of life [33, 83]

Summary

Introduction

This paper reviews recent research on connections between large-scale climate signals and severe convective activity over land. The description of HCW favorable environments developed for short-term forecasting provides both a scientific basis and a practical approach for relating climate signals with severe convection.

Results

Conclusion