Climate and Energy Emergencies

Abstract

On 3–5 November 1980 an informal meeting was held of Department of Energy (DOE) and National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) personnel and contractors to discuss what kind of climate information was needed to prepare for possible energy emergencies. At the meeting it was pointed out that presently available world oil supplies and stockpiles should be adequate to prevent any oil supply shortfalls this winter (1980–81). However, any additional supply shortfalls or a world economic recovery that increased oil demand could be expected to cause problems in coming winters. The most important effect of climate on energy under these circumstances is its influence on the demand for heating fuel. The difference in oil and gas demand between a warm and a cold winter can be the energy equivalent of 400 million barrels of oil in the United States alone. This is comparable to the projected size of the strategic petroleum reserve. Because of the large impacts even small energy shortfalls can have on the nation's economy, it is essential that we make the best possible use of the nation's energy stockpiles. DOE and NOAA are collaborating on assembling a climate data base that will give much more detailed information on temperatures and heating degree days than was ever available before. Current data, forecasts, and historical data back to 1931 will be available for some 350 regions throughout the country. These data, together with more accurate models of the use of energy for heating, could give far better estimates of the amount of fuel reserves that are needed for a cold winter. Because these data show that not all parts of the country are cold at once, they could be used to develop plans for sharing fuel throughout the country. Since smaller reserves would be needed, significant additional reserves would be available to tide the country over during a cold winter and international oil supply shortfalls. The most important recommendation arising from the conference was that potential climate information users be contacted, both to make them aware of how the newly available climate information could be used and to find out what additional data requirements they might have.