Climate and competition: the effect of moving range boundaries on habitat invasibility

Abstract

Predictions for climate change include movement of temperature isoclines up to 1000 m/year, and this is supported by recent empirical studies. This paper considers effects of a rapidly changing environment on competitive outcomes between species. The model is formulated as a system of nonlinear partial differential equations in a moving domain. Terms in the equations decribe competition interactions and random movement by individuals. Here the critical patch size and travelling wave speed for each species, calculated in the absence of competition and in a stationary habitat, play a role in determining the outcome of the process with competition and in a moving habitat. We demonstrate how habitat movement, coupled with edge effects, can open up a new niche for invaders that would be otherwise excluded.