CLIMATE AND ANALYSIS OF THE EXTREME PRECIPITATION TRENDS IN RECIFE-PE

Abstract

The city of Recife-PE, located in the Northeast Region of Brazil (NRB), is vulnerable to extreme rainfall events, such events cause flood and landslides, generating socioeconomic effects and loss of life. These consequences to these events, the objective of this study is analyze the variability of extreme precipitation events in Recife-PE, through monthly rainfall for the period from 1961 to 2019 (59 years of data), obtained from the Banco de Dados Meteorológicos para Ensino e Pesquisa do Instituto Nacional de Meteororologia (BDMEP-INMET), images from the GOES-12 satellite, from the Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos CPTEC / INPE database. The Mann-Kendall Test (MK) was used to verify the presence of trends in monthly precipitation. This test uses the null hypothesis, when there is no tendency for rainfall, and the alternative hypothesis when there is a trend in the data. It was concluded that the possibility of an increasing trend or decreasing in the data series was denied, since a stationary series was observed, the rainfall in the month of March shows negative trend at the level of 5% (p <0.05), and therefore, the null hypothesis is rejected. Through GOES-12 satellite images, it can be seen that the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is the main meteorological system that contributed to the occurrence of precipitation events in the city, because was possible to observe ITCZ zonal displacement.