Climate action and growing electricity demand: Meeting both challenges in the 21st century with space-based solar power delivered by space elevator

Abstract

Global climate action is the grand challenge of the 21st century. Large reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are needed, with net-zero CO2 emissions by mid-century a requirement for many scenarios that restrain global warming below 1.5 °C by 2100. This will require massive deployment of renewables such as ground-based solar and wind, increased long-distance grid transmission capacity, and electrification of much of the global economy. Increased electrification, coupled with rising standards of living in developing countries, will drive ever-larger electricity demand to 2050 and beyond. And the intermittency, land-use, and transmission requirements of ground-based solar and wind present challenges to large-scale deployment to meet Net Zero targets. Space-based solar power (SSP) presents an enticing alternative, and with full reusability of upcoming heavy launch vehicles and modular SSP architectures, the economics of deployment are expected to become favorable in the coming decades. Efforts exist today to deploy demonstrators this decade, with initial production systems by 2050. However, deploying SSP at the scale required to address rising, global electricity demand will itself require orders-of-magnitude greater launch frequencies. If heavy launch frequency does not increase quickly enough, due to environmental concerns, launch site competition, or other bottlenecks, the dropping cost of launch will not be sufficient to enable SSP for global impact this century. A space elevator (SE) development program like that proposed by the International Space Elevator Consortium (ISEC) offers an alternative delivery mechanism for scaling SSP beyond 2050, hedging the risk of reliance on a single delivery system while reducing the time required for large-scale SSP deployment. To de-risk possible futures in which SSP is a major part of the global energy mix this century, a dual space access architecture is proposed, leveraging the strengths of heavy launch and SEs together. Such an architecture would secure the future for green energy on Earth, in 2050 and beyond.