Clean Generation Mix Transition: Large-Scale Displacement of Fossil Fuel-Fired Units to Cut Emissions

Abstract

To reduce greenhouse emissions and tackle anthropogenic climate change, more and more fossil fuel-fired units (FFUs) are being displaced by renewable generation units (RGUs). Due to the variability and uncertainty of renewable energy sources, generation expansion planning (GEP) that considers the large-scale displacement of FFUs (DFU) has become a great challenge. To realize a clean generation mix transition with a suitable and fairer multistage FFU phaseout schedule, this article proposes a distributionally robust GEP–DFU model, which explicitly coordinates large-scale DFU and the high penetration of RGUs. The Wasserstein moment metric and Benders decomposition are deployed to deal with the renewable generation uncertainty and reduce the computational complexity. Case studies on a practical provincial power system in China verify the effectiveness of the proposed approach and reveal how the system’s generation mix could be transformed into China’s first 100% renewable electricity supply paradigm by 2040.