Abstract
The problem of sustainable development of industrial territories is considered with using a nonzero risk concept of accidents and catastrophes. Th e mathematical models for risk assessment were chosen for the information system of territorial risk management and safety. The purpose of the work is to identify and analyze basic technological risks for the information system of territorial risk management and safety (IST RMS) of the Krasnoyarsk territory. This information system provides making decision on the implementation of measures aimed at reducing the risks of sustainable development. The following tasks are set in the work: determination of the basic technospheric risks; calculation and analyzing risk of anthropogenic emergencies on the example of the Krasnoyarsk territory; safety analysis of the region. To achieve the purpose of this work were used probabilistic-statistical research methods. The relevance of the work is determined by the need to implement a national safety strategy at the regional level through risk assessment and analysis. The result of the work is an assessment of technological risks and a generalized security analysis of the municipalities and regions in the Krasnoyarsk territory. We obtained the basic development risks and algorithms for assessing territorial safety are determined using statistical analysis, ranges of individual, collective, material and social risks in an anthropogenic emergency. The classifying of territories according to the degree of anthropogenic hazard was carried out. Based on the obtained results, we conclude that in order to achieve acceptable risk values, it is necessary to use an integrated system approach to multifunctional monitoring of territories.
Highlights
Аннотация С позиций ненулевой концепции риска аварий и катастроф рассмотрена проблема устой чивого развития промышленных территорий
The mathematical models for risk assessment were chosen for the information system of territorial risk management and safety
The purpose of the work is to identify and analyze basic technological risks for the information system of territorial risk management and safety (IST RMS) of the Krasnoyarsk territory. This information system provides making decision on the implementation of measures aimed at reducing the risks of sustainable development
Summary
Региональная безопасность Проблемы анализа риска, том 16, 2019, No 4 Regional Security Issues of Risk Analysis, Vol 16, 2019, No 4. Цель работы — определение и анализ базовых техногенных рисков для информационной системы территориального управления рисками и безопасностью (ИСТУ РБ) Красноярского края, обеспечивающей информационную поддержку принятия решений по реализации мероприятий, направленных на снижение рисков устойчивого развития. Ранжирование территорий Красноярского края с использованием риск-ориентированного подхода* Classifying of Krasnoyarsk territory using a risk-based approach. Актуальность определяется необходимостью реализации стратегии национальной безопасности на региональном уровне на базе разработки мето дов и моделей анализа природно-техногенной без опасности региональных социально-природно-тех ногенных систем в рамках концепции устойчивого развития путем управления рисками и безопасно стью территорий[1, 2]. При создании ИСТУ РБ решается проблема ин формационного обеспечения принятия решений
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