Classification of mid‐tropopsheric cyclones over the Arabian Sea and western India

Abstract

AbstractThe formation of mid‐tropospheric cyclones (MTCs), responsible for a large portion of annual precipitation and extreme rainfall events over western India, is studied using an unsupervised machine learning algorithm and cyclone tracking. Both approaches reveal four dominant weather patterns that lead to the genesis of these synoptic systems. Specifically, re‐intensification of westward‐moving synoptic systems from the Bay of Bengal (type 1, 51%), in‐situ formation with a coexisting cyclonic system over the Bay of Bengal that precedes (type 2a, 31%) or follows (type 2b, 10%) genesis in the Arabian Sea, and finally in‐situ genesis within a northwestward‐propagating cyclonic anomaly from the south Bay of Bengal (type 2c, 8%). Thus, a large fraction of this region's rainy middle tropospheric synoptic systems form in association with cyclonic activity in the Bay of Bengal. The four variants identified also show a marked dependence on large‐scale environmental features. In particular, type 1 and type 2a MTC formation primarily occurs in phases 4 and 5, and type 2b and type 2c MTCs form mainly in phases 3 and 4 of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation. Further, though in‐situ formation with a Bay of Bengal cyclonic anomaly (types 2a and 2b) mostly occurs in June, downstream development is more likely in the core of the monsoon season. Out of all categories, type 2a is associated with the highest composite rain rate (60 mmday) over western India and points towards the dynamic interaction between a low‐pressure system over the Bay of Bengal and the development of MTCs over western India and the northeast Arabian Sea. This classification, identification of precursors, connection with cyclonic activity over the Bay of Bengal, and dependence on a large‐scale environment provide an avenue for a better understanding of rain‐bearing MTCs over western India.