Classification and modeling of load profiles of isolated mini-grids in developing countries: A data-driven approach

Abstract

Reaching universal access to electricity by 2030 requires a massive deployment of mini-grids in rural areas of developing countries. Among the many challenges hindering this process, there are the high uncertainties in assessing demand patterns in rural communities, the costs of field survey campaigns, and the absence of ample and reliable datasets coming from existing projects. This paper tries to address these issues by presenting and discussing a database of load profiles from sixty-one off-grid mini-grids from developing countries worldwide, gathered from the literature, private developers and fieldworks, and reported with technical, socio-economic and geographical characterization factors. A clustering procedure led to the identification of five archetypal load profile clusters, which are presented and analyzed together with their load duration curves. Subsequently, the distribution among the clusters of the various characterization factors selected is studied. The proposed approach allows to widen the range of load profiles usually considered, and to seek correlations between the load profile shapes, the peak power and average energy consumption per connection, the number of customers, the age of measurement, geographical position, operator model, type of tariff and generation technologies present. This work establishes a first step in the creation of a shared database for load profiles of rural mini-grids, helping to overcome the lack of available data and difficulties of demand assessment, proposing original insights for researchers to understand load patterns, and contributing to reduce risks and uncertainties for mini-grid developers.