Classes of task problems for determining the effectiveness of investment projects, taking into account the uncertainty of the external environment and multi-criteria

Abstract

The article is devoted to the classification of decision-making tasks when choosing investment projects in conditions when uncontrollable factors act in these tasks that affect the efficiency of the compared projects, and the projects themselves must be evaluated by a set of criteria. In modern scientific literature, the issues of assessing the effectiveness of investments are often considered in isolation from issues related to the methodology for making optimal decisions in the economy. This can lead to an incorrect choice of investment projects when they are selected for financing, especially when it comes to innovative or socially significant projects. The article attempts to analyze the problems of multi-criteria and uncertainty of decisions in relation to the evaluation of investment projects. In particular, the question of classification is raised. All tasks for assessing the comparative effectiveness of projects are divided into five classes. The classification is based on three features: the number of project efficiency criteria taken into account, the number of optimality principles used under uncertainty, and the number of multi-criteria optimization principles used. As criteria for the effectiveness of investment projects are considered: net present value, yield index, payback period, internal rate of return. As the principles of optimality under uncertainty, the following principles are considered: optimism, pessimism, guaranteed result, Savage and guaranteed losses. The principles of taking into account the problem of multi-criteria are: the principle of dominance, the Pareto principle, the principle of the formation of complex indicators, the principle of highlighting the main indicator with the transfer of the rest to the category of restrictions. The tasks of each class are illustrated with examples, quantitative calculations for these examples are carried out.