Civil Resistance Mechanisms and Disrupted Democratization: The Ambiguous Outcomes of Unarmed Insurrections in Egypt, 2011–2015

Abstract

Egyptian pro‐democracy activists mobilized two major uprisings in recent years: one ending Hosni Mubarak's decades‐long rule in February 2011 and the other precipitating a coup against newly elected president Mohamed Morsi in July 2013. Prior research indicates that nonviolent campaigns succeed more often and are more likely to result in democracy than armed insurgencies. The theorized explanation, in short, is that nonviolent campaigns better facilitate democratic participation, but it is inadequate when civil resistance has mixed outcomes. Analysis of the Egyptian case demonstrates how ambiguous results can be understood by disentangling the specific ways civil resistance prefigures democracy. The article traces the varying efficacy of civil resistance in Egypt between 2011 and 2015 through five distinct mechanisms: fostering inclusive political participation; organizing civil society; establishing civilian checks on authority; implementing procedures for nonviolent conflict management; and instituting practices of egalitarian self‐governance. The case study serves to refine our understanding of the link between nonviolent action and democratization.