Abstract
In New Zealand, Civil Defence exists because many natural hazards and man-made accidents can create disasters of dimensions that could not be dealt with by the normal emergency services. The destructive earthquake without warning is probably the most difficult and dangerous threat to public safety for Civil Defence to contend with. Most other causes of disaster either have some degree of warning or are relatively localised compared with the sudden and widespread effects of a major earthquake. Civil Defence planning is, in a sense, already based upon a vague and imprecise prediction of earthquakes known to be more likely to occur in some areas than in others and accepted as likely to happen at any time. The effect on Civil Defence of better earthquake prediction will depend on the probability, accuracy (in time, location and magnitude) of such prediction and how soon before the event it can be made.
Highlights
In New Zealand, Civl Defence exists because many natural hazards and man-made accidents can create disasters of dimensions that could not be dealt with by the normal emergency services
Civil Defence planning is, in a sense, already based upon a vague and imprecise prediction of earthquakes known to be more likely to occur in some areas than in others and accepted as likely to happen at any time
It is assumed that not all earthquakes would be predictable and many that are, would not be of sufficient force or in such locations as to constitute the serious threat to public safety portrayed in the example given
Summary
In New Zealand, Civl Defence exists because many natural hazards and man-made accidents can create disasters of dimensions that could not be dealt with by the normal emergency services. To the extent that the estimates of effects and possible restorative action can be accepted as accurate it is possible to determine the sort of things that might have been done had the exercise "earthquake" been predicted some months beforehand This earthquake was assessed to have caused damage and possibly casualties from Manawatu to North Canterbury, the areas of major disaster were Nelson/Motueka, Marlborough and the Wellington/Hutt Valley area. (h) The Civil Defence organisation and emergency services for the first forty-eight hours would at best be only partially effective Such a prediction, if accepted as probable, would lead to a decision that one way or another as many people as possible should be induced to leave the city area of Nelson before the earthquake struck. The hospitals would be severely damaged and patients would need to be evacuated
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