Civil Aviation Occurrences in Slovakia and Their Evaluation Using Statistical Methods

Miriam Andrejiova,Peter Koščák,Daniela Marasova,Anna Grincova

doi:10.3390/su13105396

Abstract

The nature of a civil aviation occurrence may be defined in three different categories while considering its severity. General categories include civil aviation accidents, serious incidents and incidents. The present article analyses the civil aviation occurrences in Slovakia which happened in the period from 2000 to 2019. In this period, there was a significant increase in the number of civil aviation occurrences, and incidents, in particular, represented the highest percentage. A Pareto analysis was applied to identify the key incident categories (wildlife strike, technical failures of the aviation technology and unauthorised penetration of airspace). A multiple regression analysis and the Poisson regression were used to create two models of correlations between the number of civil aviation occurrences and the selected input variables. Both models are statistically significant, and, based on the AIC (Akaike Information Criterion), the Poisson regression model appeared to be of higher quality. The model showed, for example, that an increase in variables (the number of commercial aircrafts aged over 14 years and the number of total aircraft movements) resulted in a slight increase in the expected number of civil aviation occurrences.

Highlights

Civil aviation is currently the safest, fastest and most comfortable mode of transport.This is a result of strict safety regulations governing the piloting, air traffic and aviation technology maintenance
According to [2,3], a civil aviation occurrence (CAO) is defined as an occurrence associated with the operation of an aircraft that affects or could affect the air traffic safety, and which is due to its consequences assessed as an aviation accident, serious incident, incident or ground incident
The number of CAOs in Slovakia that occurred in the period from 2000 to 2019 is graphically indicates that that the thenumber numberofofCAOs

Summary

Introduction

Civil aviation is currently the safest, fastest and most comfortable mode of transport. This is a result of strict safety regulations governing the piloting, air traffic and aviation technology maintenance. According to the recommendations of the International Air. Transport Association, the demand for civil aviation services is expected to double over the following two decades. Transport Association, the demand for civil aviation services is expected to double over the following two decades This would, bring more problems to the field of aviation safety as a result of increased air transport congestion and more load put on the civil aviation system. The Annual Safety Review [4]

Methods

Results

Conclusion