City Revenue Structure and Unfunded Pension Liabilities

Abstract

A growing body of research shows that economic, demographic, and institutional factors affect public pension funding. Most of these findings are based on the analysis of complete retirement systems, which are often funded by multiple plan sponsors. This article offers one of the first empirical analyses of the determinants of pension funding at the level of a city government that acts as a plan sponsor, often for more than one plan. Models predicting unfunded liabilities for a large national sample of cities over 2003–2012 suggest that city fiscal autonomy and reliance property taxes are additional pieces of the pension underfunding puzzle.