Cities, Economies and COVID-19 Pandemic

Abstract

This research aims to study the transmission dynamics of the coronavirus, the non-pharmaceutical factors that control the proliferation of the virus, and to suggest sustainable solutions for a robust economy and healthy lives in the course of the pandemic. The study explores the relationship between the transmission of the virus and various type of spaces in a city such as residential, retail, workplaces, public transport and recreational. The study also inspects the role of probability and psychological factors in shaping the pandemic. The research methodology is based on a systematic review of most of the recent research papers related to the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 and non-pharmaceutical preventive measures. The study inferred the factors such as type of space, duration of stay, randomness and close contact are important to understand the spread of the virus in cities. At the regional level, the factors such as housing overcrowding, urban densities, government response, weather condition play a significant role in shaping the pandemic. One of the major findings is the relationship between the spread of the virus and the factors such as education, economic prosperity and domestic peace. The study also develops a sustainable 24-hour economy model to stretch the working hours of most of the economic activities to 24-hour a day and 7 days a week. The concept of Staggered Work hour and Staggered Work days has been used to reduce daily and hourly trips. To develop a model, a case for London city has been presented. The modelling is done on the basis of hourly-trips data and economic activities’ workforce data for London city. The detail modeling shows 35-53% of public transport based trips can be effectively reduced in London during peak hours. And, on average, 40-50% occupancy of the office space can be reduced during working hours.