Abstract
Ongoing climate change is causing fundamental changes in the Arctic, some of which can be hazardous to nature and human activity. In the context of Earth surface systems, warming climate may lead to rising ground temperatures and thaw of permafrost. This Data Descriptor presents circumpolar permafrost maps and geohazard indices depicting zones of varying potential for development of hazards related to near-surface permafrost degradation, such as ground subsidence. Statistical models were used to predict ground temperature and the thickness of the seasonally thawed (active) layer using geospatial data on environmental conditions at 30 arc-second resolution. These predictions, together with data on factors (ground ice content, soil grain size and slope gradient) affecting permafrost stability, were used to formulate geohazard indices. Using climate-forcing scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5), permafrost extent and hazard potential were projected for the 2041–2060 and 2061–2080 time periods. The resulting data (seven permafrost and 24 geohazard maps) are relevant to near-future infrastructure risk assessments and for targeting localized geohazard analyses.
Highlights
Background & SummaryThe functioning of Arctic environments is fundamentally dependent on ground temperature conditions[1]
The mean annual ground temperature (MAGT) dataset is built upon the Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost (GTN-P) database[29]
A substantial part of the GTN-P inventory consists of data from the Thermal State of Permafrost (TSP) Snapshot Borehole Inventory[30,31], compiled during the fourth International Polar Year[29]
Summary
The functioning of Arctic environments is fundamentally dependent on ground temperature conditions[1]. Taking into account additional factors that affect local hazard potential (e.g., ground ice content and soil properties), we formulated four high-resolution hazard indices (settlement index, risk zonation index, analytical hierarchy process based index, and the consensus of these three) delineating areas of varying potential for damage to infrastructure related to near-surface permafrost degradation (Data Citation 1). The authors used these data products to quantify infrastructure hazards and risks subject to near-surface permafrost degradation[23]. Encompassing both a near-global extent and local-level resolution of analysis these data products provide insights into near-surface permafrost dynamics and the spatio-temporal development of thaw-related hazards
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